🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."